Election Day 2010 Prediction

It’s Election Day 2010 and the pundits have been buzzing predicting yet another “Republican takeover” similar to that in 1994 under the Newt Gingrich regime. I remember that year oh so well. I had just relocated to the Washington DC area and had the great fortune of landing a job as the campaign press secretary for Congressman Albert R. Wynn from Maryland’s 4th Congressional district. (I initially thought that I would go to DC and eventually work for North Carolina’s Congressman David Price (coincidentally the representative from NC’s 4th Congressional district) but he was a casualty of the Republicans. I earned my first battle scars as a campaign aide working for a US Congressman in a highly volatile political climate; the stakes were high and the Dems fought hard to hold on to their seats and to protect the party’s hero and “rock star” President Bill Clinton from becoming a lame duck.
When it was all said and done and the votes were all counted, 38.8% of the eligible American voters turned out. It was estimated that 108,000,000 eligible Americans failed to turn up at the polls and cast their vote. Lack of enthusiasm was again being blamed like it is today as the grim reaper after a bitter fight for guess what—health care reform. All in all, the Republicans garnered 19.0% of the eligible vote for Congress, exceeding the Democrats (16.6%) for the first time since 1946 (http://archive.fairvote.org/reports/1995/chp3/gans.html). And after the smoke cleared—34 incumbents, all Democrats lost their seats and the Republicans took control of Congress winning 52 seats in the House and 9 seats in the Senate. Needless to say the Democrats were sorely disappointed and shamed as the Republicans launched a massive far-reaching political war, “taking no prisoners.”

The speeches on the campaign trails and rhetoric during this election cycle were probably just as divisive and scary as they were in 1994 however I don’t recall them being nearly as sinister and hate-filled. I think that although President Obama’s level of intelligence and charismatic appeal is similar if not exceeds that of President Clinton, he has several forces working against him: (1) his race (Black man) although few people will openly admit it; (2) the miserable economy and the fact that we are in a recession that has flat lined as far as jobs recovery and growth goes; and (3) the matchless money machine of the right that is fueled by the spoils of Corporate warfare against the working class.

The pundits are predicting we are going to see a replay of 1994 even without a unified Republican Party and an clear republican agenda like the “Contract with America”—and despite the fact that the Republic party is splintered and broken into hostile factions –with the Tea Party on one side and ultra conservative old-guard Republican partiers on the other. They do however share in the enormous money coffers and have all seemed to rally behind one common battle cry—to politically disable and ultimately prevent the reelection in 2012 of President Obama. Case and point, current Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell sent out a rallying cry to the Republican Party admonishing them that their main goal is to “make sure that Barak Obama is a one-term president.”

The Democrats are not so much splintered as they are handicapped by out-dated political strategies and timid, if not spineless, leadership.

While it is 7:33 p.m. as I conclude this first posting on Election Day 2010 and most of the polls in the east have just closed, there is still much uncertainty. Nevertheless, the pundits on MSNBC and CNN are continuing to predict a Republican sweep. Part of their over confidence with their predictions may have served the Democrats well by forcing people to realize the high stakes of this election when they otherwise would have stayed at home.

I am going to take a gamble and predict that the Democrats will still hold on to the House and Senate although by a narrow margin. I am not as positive about the race between Elaine Marshall (Democratic candidate) and Richard Burr (incumbent Republican). My pessimism is largely due to the lack of support it appears that Elaine Marshall received by the NC Democratic Party. Furthermore I am ever so mindful of the fact that North Carolina didn't send the late former Senator Jessie Helms back to Washington over and over again on the votes of Republicans alone.

What is certain is that the nation as a whole is sickened by the lack of real political leadership by both parties and the abysmal lack of protection of everyday, hard working Americans. Both parties have failed to lead with courage, moral conviction and any sign of intelligent public policy making.

I predict that there will be some upsets but I am hopeful that the outcome will not be as dire or devastating as folk who are getting paid a lot more money that I make are prognosticating.

And the tallying of the votes has begun…let’s see if tomorrow we will have a Congress that is hell bent on taking our nation backwards or if we have a Congress that has a renewed commitment and stronger will to move us forward.